Liberal Democrats

The election got a whole lot more exciting after the first TV debate persuaded many that Clegg was fit to be PM, and I have to say that I am suddenly having doubts about what I thought was a cast iron dead cert prediction. The polls do seem to fluctuate wildly but the polls the media have fixated upon suggest that the LibDems are neck and neck with the Tories, with Gordon Brown's dying government crawling some distance behind. Other polls suggest that all three parties are tying, with the Tories slightly ahead and the LibDems trampling Labour to te bottom of the heap.

If this trend is representative of what is happening in the marginals, then all bets are off. The LibDems have taken vote share from both of the other major parties, which suggests that people who vote tactically and negatively are voting positively for Clegg's party. In other words, instead of holding their nose to keep their least favoured party out, they are voting FOR someone.

The danger inherent in this is that, barring a major swing towards one party, this guarantees a hung parliament. The Tories will not be able to form a working coalition - Clegg has already ruled out any deals with the Tories, although not in so many words - so those who switched from the Tories to get Brown out of Downing Street to the LibDems are helping to ensure that Gordy gets back into Downing Street - either as PM or Chancellor - so he can continue his wrecking spree.

Those whose priority is to stop this will probably switch their vote back to Cameron, which means the Tories will scoop up seats weakened by Labour's poll losses to Clegg, and potentially might end up with a bigger majority than might otherwise have happened.